SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 46.28%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.88%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Newcastle United |
29.53% ( 0.81) | 24.18% ( 0.28) | 46.28% ( -1.09) |
| Both teams to score 58.14% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.91% ( -0.78) | 44.09% ( 0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.53% ( -0.77) | 66.47% ( 0.76) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.96% ( 0.16) | 28.03% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.31% ( 0.21) | 63.69% ( -0.21) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.8% ( -0.75) | 19.2% ( 0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.11% ( -1.26) | 50.88% ( 1.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luton Town | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 2-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.14) 1-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.26)2-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.51% 3-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.78% Total : 29.53% | 1-1 @ 11.29% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.18% | 1-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 4.03% ( -0.16)2-3 @ 3.26% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 2.12% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 1.66% ( -0.11)2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.2% Total : 46.28% |
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