Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 31.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Newcastle United | Draw | Manchester City |
31.97% (![]() | 24.26% (![]() | 43.77% (![]() |
Both teams to score 59.2% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.71% (![]() | 43.28% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.32% (![]() | 65.68% (![]() |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.94% (![]() | 26.06% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.9% (![]() | 61.1% (![]() |
Manchester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.05% (![]() | 19.94% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.9% (![]() | 52.09% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle United | Draw | Manchester City |
2-1 @ 7.58% (![]() 1-0 @ 6.99% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 4.7% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 3.4% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.74% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 2.11% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.14% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 0.92% ( ![]() Other @ 2.4% Total : 31.97% | 1-1 @ 11.26% (![]() 2-2 @ 6.11% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 5.2% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.47% ( ![]() Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.26% | 1-2 @ 9.08% (![]() 0-1 @ 8.38% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 6.75% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 4.88% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 3.63% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 3.28% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 1.97% ( ![]() 0-4 @ 1.46% ( ![]() 2-4 @ 1.32% ( ![]() Other @ 3% Total : 43.77% |
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