SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 31.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Manchester City |
31.97% ( -0.14) | 24.26% ( 0.02) | 43.77% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 59.2% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.71% ( -0.16) | 43.28% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.32% ( -0.15) | 65.68% ( 0.15) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.94% ( -0.16) | 26.06% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.9% ( -0.22) | 61.1% ( 0.22) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.05% ( -0.01) | 19.94% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.9% ( -0.02) | 52.09% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 7.58% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.4% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.4% Total : 31.97% | 1-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.26% | 1-2 @ 9.08% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.38% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 6.75% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 4.88% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.63% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.97% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.46% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)Other @ 3% Total : 43.77% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
