SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 52.42%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 23.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.64%) and 0-2 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-0 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Northampton Town | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
23.18% ( -2.74) | 24.4% ( -0.17) | 52.42% ( 2.9) |
| Both teams to score 51.72% ( -2.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.1% ( -1.71) | 49.9% ( 1.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.11% ( -1.55) | 71.89% ( 1.54) |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.85% ( -3.3) | 36.15% ( 3.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.06% ( -3.52) | 72.93% ( 3.51) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81% ( 0.49) | 19% ( -0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.45% ( 0.81) | 50.55% ( -0.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Northampton Town | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 5.9% ( -0.58)2-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.41)3-1 @ 2% ( -0.41)3-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.31)3-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.27)Other @ 1.86% Total : 23.18% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.87% ( 0.46)2-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.4)3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.4% | 0-1 @ 11.4% ( 0.93) 1-2 @ 9.64% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 9.47% ( 0.91)1-3 @ 5.34% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 5.24% ( 0.58)2-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.18)1-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.09)0-4 @ 2.18% ( 0.27)2-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.09% Total : 52.41% |
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