SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 52.16%. A win for Doncaster Rovers had a probability of 26.81% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.39%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Doncaster Rovers win was 1-2 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
52.16% ( 0.55) | 21.02% ( -0.15) | 26.81% ( -0.41) |
| Both teams to score 67.51% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.13% ( 0.4) | 30.87% ( -0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.77% ( 0.47) | 52.23% ( -0.47) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.74% ( 0.3) | 12.25% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.02% ( 0.62) | 37.98% ( -0.62) |
| Doncaster Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.94% ( -0.05) | 23.05% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.11% ( -0.07) | 56.88% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Notts County | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
| 2-1 @ 9.13% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 6.23% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 5.93% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 2.46% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.41% ( 0.05)4-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.72% Total : 52.16% | 1-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 6.7% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.83% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.5% Total : 21.02% | 1-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 4.15% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.01% Total : 26.81% |
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