Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 53.06%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 24.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 2-1 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
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