Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 51.51%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 25.71% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
