SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 53.79%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Nuremberg had a probability of 23.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Nuremberg win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | Nuremberg |
53.79% ( -0.35) | 23.13% ( 0.14) | 23.08% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 55.66% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.38% ( -0.36) | 44.62% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.01% ( -0.35) | 66.98% ( 0.35) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.47% ( -0.25) | 16.53% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.72% ( -0.45) | 46.28% ( 0.45) |
| Nuremberg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.68% ( -0.01) | 33.32% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.06% ( -0.01) | 69.94% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Pauli | Draw | Nuremberg |
| 1-0 @ 9.91% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.88% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 5.35% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.21% Total : 53.79% | 1-1 @ 10.89% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.13% | 0-1 @ 6.05% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 5.99% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.33% Total : 23.08% |
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