Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 49.17%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 25.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
0.08) 
-0.02) 
