Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Como win with a probability of 47.17%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 27.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Como win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Como would win this match.
0.13) 
-0.04) 
