Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Como win with a probability of 47.17%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 27.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Como win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Como would win this match.
Result | ||
Como | Draw | Spezia |
47.17% ( 0.13) | 25.76% ( -0.04) | 27.08% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 51.32% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.75% ( 0.14) | 52.25% ( -0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.05% ( 0.12) | 73.95% ( -0.11) |
Como Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.85% ( 0.12) | 22.15% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.47% ( 0.17) | 55.53% ( -0.16) |
Spezia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.92% ( 0.01) | 34.08% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.23% ( 0.01) | 70.77% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Como | Draw | Spezia |
1-0 @ 11.37% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.64% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.22% Total : 47.16% | 1-1 @ 12.24% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.99% Total : 25.75% | 0-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.37% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.78% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.27% Total : 27.08% |
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