SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 41.9%. A win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Rampla Juniors win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Rampla Juniors |
41.9% ( 0.39) | 27.96% ( 0.02) | 30.13% ( -0.41) |
| Both teams to score 46.68% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.93% ( -0.21) | 59.07% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.47% ( -0.16) | 79.53% ( 0.16) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.19% ( 0.12) | 27.81% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.6% ( 0.15) | 63.39% ( -0.15) |
| Rampla Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.66% ( -0.42) | 35.34% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.9% ( -0.44) | 72.1% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Rampla Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 12.57% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 8.37% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.05% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.8% Total : 41.9% | 1-1 @ 13.08% 0-0 @ 9.83% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.7% Total : 27.96% | 0-1 @ 10.22% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.8% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.08% Total : 30.13% |
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