SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 37.8%. A win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 34.82% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Racing de Montevideo win was 0-1 (10.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
37.8% ( 0.64) | 27.38% ( -0.14) | 34.82% ( -0.5) |
| Both teams to score 49.64% ( 0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.07% ( 0.49) | 55.93% ( -0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.97% ( 0.4) | 77.03% ( -0.4) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.38% ( 0.62) | 28.62% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.57% ( 0.77) | 64.43% ( -0.77) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.55% ( -0.08) | 30.45% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.34% ( -0.09) | 66.66% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
| 1-0 @ 10.9% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 2.84% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.68% Total : 37.8% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.88% Total : 27.37% | 0-1 @ 10.36% ( -0.22) 1-2 @ 7.71% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 6.16% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.27% Total : 34.82% |
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