Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 52.06%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 23.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.68%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Montevideo City Torque in this match.