SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.19%) and 1-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Progreso |
29.72% ( 0.03) | 28.55% ( 0) | 41.72% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 44.9% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.78% ( 0.01) | 61.22% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.84% ( 0.01) | 81.16% ( -0.01) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.18% ( 0.03) | 36.82% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.39% ( 0.03) | 73.61% ( -0.03) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.06% ( -0.01) | 28.94% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.18% ( -0.01) | 64.82% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 10.64% 2-1 @ 6.6% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.2% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.77% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0)Other @ 1.83% Total : 29.72% | 1-1 @ 13.2% 0-0 @ 10.65% 2-2 @ 4.09% ( 0)Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.55% | 0-1 @ 13.21% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.19% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 8.19% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.39% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.38% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.69% 0-4 @ 1.05% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 1.58% Total : 41.72% |
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