SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sichuan Jiuniu win with a probability of 43.8%. A win for Qingdao Hainiu had a probability of 30.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sichuan Jiuniu win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.01%) and 0-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Qingdao Hainiu win was 1-0 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Qingdao Hainiu | Draw | Sichuan Jiuniu |
30.48% ( -0.28) | 25.72% ( 0.05) | 43.8% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 53.57% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.68% ( -0.32) | 50.32% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.73% ( -0.28) | 72.26% ( 0.28) |
| Qingdao Hainiu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.47% ( -0.35) | 30.53% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.25% ( -0.42) | 66.75% ( 0.42) |
| Sichuan Jiuniu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.11% ( -0.03) | 22.89% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.36% ( -0.04) | 56.64% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qingdao Hainiu | Draw | Sichuan Jiuniu |
| 1-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.25% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.09% Total : 30.48% | 1-1 @ 12.22% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.72% | 0-1 @ 10.3% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 9.01% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 7.6% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 4.43% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.73% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.63% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.11% Total : 43.79% |
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