SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 60.9%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 16.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.99%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (5.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rio Ave in this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Casa Pia |
60.9% ( 0.47) | 22.75% ( -0.12) | 16.35% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 45.96% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48% ( -0.08) | 52% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.27% ( -0.06) | 73.74% ( 0.07) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.34% ( 0.14) | 16.67% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.47% ( 0.24) | 46.53% ( -0.24) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.15% ( -0.49) | 44.85% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.19% ( -0.4) | 80.81% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 13.39% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 11.99% ( 0.14)2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 7.17% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 5.75% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.21% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.57% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.78% Total : 60.89% | 1-1 @ 10.73% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.67% Total : 22.74% | 0-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.47% Total : 16.35% |
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