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Primeira Liga | Gameweek 21
Feb 11, 2024 at 3.30pm UK
Estadio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
CP

Rio Ave
1 - 0
Casa Pia

Yakubu (88')
Freire (14'), Teixeira (38')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Neto (13'), Clayton (86'), Lameiras (90+4')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Porto 0-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, February 3 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Casa Pia 0-0 Boavista
Monday, February 5 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Rio Ave 1-0 Casa Pia

While both sides are evenly matched on paper, Rio Ave's home advantage gives them a slight edge this weekend. Freire's have been impressive at the Estadio dos Arcos in the last three months and we see them claiming all three points, albeit by a narrow margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 60.9%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 16.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.99%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (5.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rio Ave in this match.

Result
Rio AveDrawCasa Pia
60.9% (0.47 0.47) 22.75% (-0.12 -0.12) 16.35% (-0.346 -0.35)
Both teams to score 45.96% (-0.338 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)52% (0.080999999999996 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.27% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)73.74% (0.069999999999993 0.07)
Rio Ave Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.34% (0.13800000000001 0.14)16.67% (-0.133 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.47% (0.242 0.24)46.53% (-0.237 -0.24)
Casa Pia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.15% (-0.495 -0.49)44.85% (0.501 0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.19% (-0.399 -0.4)80.81% (0.40599999999999 0.41)
Score Analysis
    Rio Ave 60.89%
    Casa Pia 16.35%
    Draw 22.74%
Rio AveDrawCasa Pia
1-0 @ 13.39% (0.1 0.1)
2-0 @ 11.99% (0.14 0.14)
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
3-0 @ 7.17% (0.118 0.12)
3-1 @ 5.75% (0.016 0.02)
4-0 @ 3.21% (0.067 0.07)
4-1 @ 2.57% (0.018 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.3% (-0.026 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.15% (0.028 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.03% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
5-1 @ 0.92% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 1.78%
Total : 60.89%
1-1 @ 10.73% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-0 @ 7.47% (0.024 0.02)
2-2 @ 3.86% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 22.74%
0-1 @ 5.99% (-0.064 -0.06)
1-2 @ 4.31% (-0.087 -0.09)
0-2 @ 2.4% (-0.06 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1.15% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.03% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.47%
Total : 16.35%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Porto 0-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, February 3 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Rio Ave 1-1 Estoril
Wednesday, January 31 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Chaves 0-0 Rio Ave
Sunday, January 21 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Benfica 4-1 Rio Ave
Sunday, January 14 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Rio Ave 2-0 Portimonense
Sunday, January 7 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Guimaraes 1-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, December 23 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Casa Pia 0-0 Boavista
Monday, February 5 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 8-0 Casa Pia
Monday, January 29 at 8.45pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Casa Pia 1-3 Farense
Saturday, January 20 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Casa Pia 0-2 Famalicao
Saturday, January 13 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Moreirense 1-4 Casa Pia
Monday, January 8 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Casa Pia 1-3 Braga
Saturday, December 30 at 6pm in Primeira Liga


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