Looking at past results between Casa Pia and Rio Ave, we predict a cagey affair at the Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior on Saturday. While both sides are evenly matched on paper and have had almost identical starts to the campaign, we are tipping the Martins's side to make use of their home advantage in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 41.64%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (7.81%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
-0.18) 
0.28) 
