SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rosario Central win with a probability of 42.44%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rosario Central in this match.
| Result | ||
| Rosario Central | Draw | Penarol |
42.44% ( -0.06) | 26.17% ( 0.04) | 31.4% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.55% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.17% ( -0.14) | 51.83% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.41% ( -0.12) | 73.59% ( 0.13) |
| Rosario Central Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.79% ( -0.09) | 24.21% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.45% ( -0.14) | 58.55% ( 0.14) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.34% ( -0.05) | 30.66% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.09% ( -0.06) | 66.91% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rosario Central | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.83% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.71% Total : 42.44% | 1-1 @ 12.44% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.16% | 0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.36% 0-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.9% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.04% ( 0)Other @ 3.08% Total : 31.4% |
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