Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.96%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 20.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.41%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
Result | ||
Penarol | Draw | Cerro |
50.96% (![]() | 28.88% | 20.16% (![]() |
Both teams to score 36.85% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
32.57% (![]() | 67.43% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
14.45% (![]() | 85.55% (![]() |
Penarol Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.86% (![]() | 27.14% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.46% (![]() | 62.53% (![]() |
Cerro Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.57% (![]() | 49.43% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.74% (![]() | 84.26% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Penarol | Draw | Cerro |
1-0 @ 17.49% (![]() 2-0 @ 11.4% ( ![]() 2-1 @ 8.04% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 4.96% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 3.5% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.62% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 1.23% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.14% ( ![]() Other @ 1.57% Total : 50.94% | 0-0 @ 13.41% (![]() 1-1 @ 12.32% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 2.83% ( ![]() Other @ 0.31% Total : 28.87% | 0-1 @ 9.45% (![]() 1-2 @ 4.34% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 3.33% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 1.02% ( ![]() Other @ 2.01% Total : 20.16% |
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