SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 55.18%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 19.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.33%) and 1-2 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 1-0 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Penarol |
19.47% ( -0.04) | 25.35% ( -0) | 55.18% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 44.18% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.65% ( -0.04) | 57.35% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.83% ( -0.03) | 78.17% ( 0.03) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.79% ( -0.06) | 44.21% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.7% ( -0.05) | 80.3% ( 0.05) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.18% | 20.82% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.51% | 53.49% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 7.51% ( -0) 2-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 1.74% Total : 19.47% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.2% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.58% Total : 25.34% | 0-1 @ 14.44% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 11.33% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 9.25% ( -0)0-3 @ 5.93% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.84% ( -0)0-4 @ 2.33% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.98% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.9% ( -0)Other @ 3.19% Total : 55.18% |
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