Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 46.71%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Carrarese had a probability of 25.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.88%), while for a Carrarese win it was 0-1 (9.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
-0.49) 
0.02) 
