SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 44.52%. A draw had a probability of 30.3% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 25.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.54%) and 1-2 (7.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.86%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 1-0 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Estudiantes |
25.14% ( 0.75) | 30.33% ( 0.44) | 44.52% ( -1.2) |
| Both teams to score 38.12% ( -0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.69% ( -0.83) | 68.31% ( 0.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.86% ( -0.55) | 86.14% ( 0.55) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.19% ( 0.22) | 44.81% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.22% ( 0.18) | 80.78% ( -0.18) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.07% ( -1.08) | 30.93% ( 1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.77% ( -1.29) | 67.22% ( 1.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Estudiantes |
| 1-0 @ 11.12% ( 0.4) 2-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 4.47% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.72% Total : 25.14% | 0-0 @ 13.86% ( 0.42) 1-1 @ 13.05% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.34% Total : 30.33% | 0-1 @ 16.26% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.54% ( -0.28)1-2 @ 7.66% ( -0.18)0-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.23)1-3 @ 3% ( -0.16)2-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.03% Total : 44.52% |
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