SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 59.14%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 16.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.77%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estudiantes | Draw | Sarmiento |
59.14% ( -0.92) | 24.66% ( 0.17) | 16.2% ( 0.75) |
| Both teams to score 40.63% ( 0.98) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.97% ( 0.48) | 59.03% ( -0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.51% ( 0.37) | 79.49% ( -0.37) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.08% ( -0.17) | 19.91% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.95% ( -0.27) | 52.05% ( 0.27) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.73% ( 1.32) | 49.26% ( -1.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.86% ( 0.92) | 84.14% ( -0.92) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estudiantes | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 15.83% ( -0.37) 2-0 @ 12.77% ( -0.37)2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 6.87% ( -0.23)3-1 @ 4.87% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.77% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 1.96% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.3% Total : 59.14% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 9.81% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.44% Total : 24.65% | 0-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 2.46% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.89% Total : 16.2% |
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