SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 48.26%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 22.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.54%) and 2-1 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.23%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgrano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belgrano | Draw | Sarmiento |
48.26% ( -0.5) | 29.32% ( 0.06) | 22.41% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 38.18% ( 0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.94% ( 0.1) | 67.06% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.69% ( 0.06) | 85.3% ( -0.07) |
| Belgrano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.69% ( -0.21) | 28.3% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.97% ( -0.26) | 64.03% ( 0.26) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.25% ( 0.51) | 46.75% ( -0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.7% ( 0.39) | 82.3% ( -0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belgrano | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 16.7% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 10.54% ( -0.16)2-1 @ 8.01% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.4% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.45% Total : 48.26% | 0-0 @ 13.23% ( -0.05) 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 3.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.35% Total : 29.31% | 0-1 @ 10.06% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 4.83% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.51% Total : 22.41% |
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