SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Racing Club | 14 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Huracan | 13 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 62.25%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 14.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.7%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estudiantes | Draw | Sarmiento |
62.25% ( 0.38) | 23.64% ( 0.04) | 14.11% ( -0.42) |
| Both teams to score 38.97% ( -0.99) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.24% ( -0.8) | 58.76% ( 0.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.72% ( -0.63) | 79.28% ( 0.62) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.36% ( -0.16) | 18.63% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.05% ( -0.28) | 49.94% ( 0.27) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.89% ( -1.12) | 52.11% ( 1.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.92% ( -0.74) | 86.07% ( 0.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estudiantes | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 16.31% ( 0.41) 2-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.27)2-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 7.68% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 5% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 3.22% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.1% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.08)5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 2.58% Total : 62.25% | 1-1 @ 10.63% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.29)2-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.38% Total : 23.63% | 0-1 @ 6.33% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.25% Total : 14.11% |
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