Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 62.25%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 14.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.7%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
0.38) 
-0.42) 
