Excelsior will be low on confidence following their exit of the KNVB Cup at the hands of second-tier side Groningen in their last fixture. Heerenveen battled back to earn a point at Zwolle last time out, and we are expecting the same result for the visitors on Friday night in Rotterdam. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 31.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.63%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.

Result
SBV Excelsior	Draw	Heerenveen
31.73% ( -0.04)	23.54% ( -0.03)	44.72% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 61.67% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60% (

0.11)

39.99% (

-0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.64% (

0.12)

62.35% (

-0.12)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.4% (

0.03)

24.6% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.9% (

0.04)

59.1% (

-0.05)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.79% (

0.07)

18.2% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.78% (

0.12)

49.22% (

-0.13)

Score Analysis

SBV Excelsior 31.73%

Heerenveen 44.72%

Draw 23.53%

SBV Excelsior	Draw	Heerenveen
2-1 @ 7.5% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.51% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.06% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.23% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.72% Total : 31.73%	1-1 @ 10.69% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.48% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.53%	1-2 @ 9.11% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.63% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 6.5% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.17% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.69% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.63% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.2% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.55% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.67% Total : 44.72%