Heerenveen have been prolific in front of their home supporters recently, scoring 11 goals in their last three matches at Abe Lenstra Stadion, and we expect that theme to continue on Friday.
Almere's confidence would have been severely knocked by the loss to Hercales last time out, and we cannot envisage them recovering in time to earn a result in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 60.68%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Almere City had a probability of 18.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.09%) and 1-0 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%), while for an Almere City win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
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