SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 72.93%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 12%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.17%) and 3-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.32%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Heerenveen |
72.93% ( 0.03) | 15.07% ( -0.02) | 12% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 61.82% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.03% ( 0.05) | 25.97% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.82% ( 0.06) | 46.17% ( -0.06) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.8% ( 0.02) | 6.19% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 76.58% ( 0.05) | 23.42% ( -0.05) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.9% ( 0.01) | 34.1% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.21% ( 0.01) | 70.78% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.17% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 8.15% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.58% ( -0)1-0 @ 5.87% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 5.67% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 5.27% ( 0)3-2 @ 4.39% ( 0)5-1 @ 3.15% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 3.05% ( 0)5-0 @ 2.93% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.7% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.46% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.36% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.09% ( 0)Other @ 4.3% Total : 72.93% | 1-1 @ 6.32% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0)Other @ 0.33% Total : 15.07% | 1-2 @ 3.4% ( -0) 0-1 @ 2.27% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.7% 0-2 @ 1.22% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.22% ( -0)Other @ 2.19% Total : 12% |
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