SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 68.73%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 13.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 3-1 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.75%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Twente | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
68.73% ( 0.17) | 17.31% ( -0.06) | 13.96% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 58.63% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.56% ( 0.02) | 32.44% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.93% ( 0.02) | 54.07% ( -0.02) |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.42% ( 0.04) | 8.58% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.35% ( 0.11) | 29.65% ( -0.11) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.14% ( -0.15) | 35.86% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.36% ( -0.15) | 72.64% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Twente | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.28% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.45% ( -0)5-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 1.2% ( 0)6-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.37% Total : 68.73% | 1-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.08% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 17.31% | 1-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 3.16% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.19% Total : 13.96% |
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