SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 64.02%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 16.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.87%) and 0-1 (7.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.52%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Feyenoord |
16.97% ( 0.52) | 19% ( 0.01) | 64.02% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 59.83% ( 1.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.67% ( 1.01) | 34.33% ( -1.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.76% ( 1.13) | 56.24% ( -1.13) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.62% ( 1.23) | 33.38% ( -1.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.99% ( 1.33) | 70.01% ( -1.32) |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.82% ( 0.16) | 10.18% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.55% ( 0.36) | 33.45% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 2-1 @ 4.67% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 1.71% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.86% Total : 16.97% | 1-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.15)0-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.18)3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.26% Total : 19% | 1-2 @ 9.73% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 8.87% ( -0.34)0-1 @ 7.77% ( -0.36)1-3 @ 7.41% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 6.75% ( -0.21)1-4 @ 4.23% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 4.07% ( 0.14)0-4 @ 3.86% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 2.32% ( 0.1)1-5 @ 1.93% ( 0.03)0-5 @ 1.76% ( -0.03)2-5 @ 1.06% ( 0.05)Other @ 4.26% Total : 64.02% |
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