Buoyed by their late victory over Nacional, Gil Vicente will head into the weekend with renewed confidence as they look to move into the top half of the standings.
However, the Gilistas' form on the road is currently nothing to write home about and we predict that Farense will hold out for a share of the spoils in front of their home supporters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 47.9%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 25.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.34%) and 1-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.56%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-0 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Gil Vicente in this match.
0.07) 
-0.06) 
