With just one point separating Gil Vicente and Nacional in the bottom half of the table, we expect both sides to go all out at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos as they look to get one over the other. Margarido's men have struggled to get going on the road and we fancy the Gilistas to come away with the desired result.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 56.07%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 19.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.68%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Gil Vicente in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Gil Vicente.
-0.14) 
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