SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Denmark | 9 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Kazakhstan | 9 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Finland | 9 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 9 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 9 | -27 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Denmark | 9 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Kazakhstan | 9 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Finland | 9 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 9 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 9 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 57.15%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 19.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (6.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Slovenia | Draw | Kazakhstan |
57.15% ( 0.43) | 23.84% ( -0.19) | 19.01% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 47.61% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.61% ( 0.4) | 52.39% ( -0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.93% ( 0.34) | 74.07% ( -0.34) |
| Slovenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.85% ( 0.31) | 18.14% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.89% ( 0.52) | 49.11% ( -0.52) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.16% ( -0.05) | 41.84% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.71% ( -0.04) | 78.29% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Slovenia | Draw | Kazakhstan |
| 1-0 @ 12.95% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.34% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.38% Total : 57.13% | 1-1 @ 11.29% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.59% ( -0.12)2-2 @ 4.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.76% Total : 23.84% | 0-1 @ 6.61% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.22% ( 0)Other @ 1.95% Total : 19.01% |
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