Slovenia impressed in their two most recent friendlies, picking up a very impressive 1-0 win against Romania, who on paper are probably a better side than Kazakhstan.
As such, we expect Kekci to get their qualification campaign off to the perfect start, but it will not be easy, as their opponents have made significant strides as a team since they last competed for a spot at the Euros.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 44.75%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 27.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.92%) and 1-2 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.99%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 1-0 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.
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