SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Finland | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 4 | -13 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Finland | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 49.52%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 23.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.77%) and 1-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 1-0 (8.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Finland in this match.
| Result | ||
| Kazakhstan | Draw | Finland |
23.98% ( 0) | 26.5% ( 0.01) | 49.52% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 46.51% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.83% ( -0.04) | 57.17% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.97% ( -0.03) | 78.03% ( 0.03) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.54% ( -0.02) | 39.46% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.85% ( -0.02) | 76.15% ( 0.02) |
| Finland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.83% ( -0.02) | 23.17% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.95% ( -0.03) | 57.05% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kazakhstan | Draw | Finland |
| 1-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 5.78% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.95% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.79% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.31% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.23% Other @ 1.42% Total : 23.98% | 1-1 @ 12.43% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.14% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.23% ( -0)Other @ 0.7% Total : 26.5% | 0-1 @ 13.36% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.77% ( 0)1-2 @ 9.09% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.76% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.43% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.06% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.74% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.62% ( -0)Other @ 2.67% Total : 49.51% |
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