SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 8 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Denmark | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Kazakhstan | 8 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Finland | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 8 | -25 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 8 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Denmark | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Kazakhstan | 8 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Finland | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 8 | -25 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 90.49%. A draw had a probability of 7.2% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 2.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 3-0 with a probability of 14.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.35%) and 4-0 (11.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.39%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (1.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kazakhstan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kazakhstan | Draw | San Marino |
90.49% ( -1.33) | 7.21% ( 0.94) | 2.29% ( 0.39) |
| Both teams to score 32.74% ( 0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.39% ( -2.43) | 28.61% ( 2.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.5% ( -3.06) | 49.5% ( 3.07) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.24% ( -0.56) | 3.76% ( 0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 83.9% ( -1.91) | 16.1% ( 1.92) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 34.02% ( 1.04) | 65.98% ( -1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 6.58% ( 0.43) | 93.42% ( -0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kazakhstan | Draw | San Marino |
| 3-0 @ 14.6% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 13.35% ( 0.67)4-0 @ 11.97% ( -0.57)1-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.78)5-0 @ 7.86% ( -0.79)3-1 @ 6.07% ( 0.24)2-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.47)4-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.04)6-0 @ 4.3% ( -0.67)5-1 @ 3.27% ( -0.19)7-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.43)6-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.03)Other @ 4.31% Total : 90.49% | 1-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.44) 0-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.34)2-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.19% Total : 7.21% | 0-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.18) Other @ 1.26% Total : 2.29% |
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