SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 7 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Denmark | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Finland | 7 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 7 | -24 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 7 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Denmark | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Finland | 7 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 7 | -24 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 56.38%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 19.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.61%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Finland | Draw | Kazakhstan |
56.38% ( -2.19) | 23.76% ( 0.93) | 19.86% ( 1.25) |
| Both teams to score 49.18% ( -0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49% ( -2.08) | 51% ( 2.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.14% ( -1.86) | 72.86% ( 1.86) |
| Finland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.09% ( -1.52) | 17.91% ( 1.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.29% ( -2.69) | 48.71% ( 2.69) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.91% ( 0.19) | 40.09% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.27% ( 0.17) | 76.73% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Finland | Draw | Kazakhstan |
| 1-0 @ 12.34% ( 0.41) 2-0 @ 10.61% ( -0.18)2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.42)3-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.36)4-0 @ 2.62% ( -0.33)3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.15)4-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.29)4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.41% Total : 56.37% | 1-1 @ 11.28% ( 0.43) 0-0 @ 7.18% ( 0.58)2-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.86% Total : 23.75% | 0-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.56) 1-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.22)0-2 @ 3% ( 0.27)1-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.35% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.09)Other @ 1.3% Total : 19.86% |
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