Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 44.36%. A win for Bari had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (9.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
0.12) 
-0.13) 
