Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 45.37%. A win for Cesena had a probability of 28.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Cesena win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.
-0.61) 
0.2) 
