Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 49.21%. A win for Palermo had a probability of 25.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest Palermo win was 0-1 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Spezia in this match.
-0.12) 
0.03) 
