Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 55.5%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Reggiana had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.22%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Reggiana win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Spezia in this match.
-0.09) 
0.05) 
