Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 60.27%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 18.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 1-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.65%), while for a Hertha Berlin win it was 1-2 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.12) 
