SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 39%. A win for Tigre had a probability of 33.94% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Tigre win was 1-0 (9.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tigre | Draw | Sao Paulo |
33.94% ( 0.13) | 27.06% ( 0.02) | 39% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 50.49% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.2% ( -0.06) | 54.8% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.89% ( -0.05) | 76.11% ( 0.05) |
| Tigre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.54% ( 0.06) | 30.46% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.34% ( 0.07) | 66.66% ( -0.07) |
| Sao Paulo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.6% ( -0.12) | 27.4% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.13% ( -0.15) | 62.87% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tigre | Draw | Sao Paulo |
| 1-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0)Other @ 3.17% Total : 33.94% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.93% Total : 27.06% | 0-1 @ 10.8% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.32% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.99% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.59% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 39% |
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