Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
0.45) 
-0.26) 
