SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 51.95%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Independiente Rivadavia had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.65%) and 2-1 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.11%), while for a Independiente Rivadavia win it was 0-1 (9.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Independiente Rivadavia |
51.95% ( 0.07) | 28.48% ( -0.03) | 19.56% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 37% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.17% ( 0.05) | 66.82% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.85% ( 0.04) | 85.14% ( -0.04) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.62% ( 0.06) | 26.37% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.47% ( 0.08) | 61.52% ( -0.08) |
| Independiente Rivadavia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.25% ( -0.01) | 49.74% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.52% ( -0.01) | 84.47% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 1-0 @ 17.48% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 11.65% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.18% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.62% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.26% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.69% Total : 51.94% | 0-0 @ 13.11% ( -0.03) 1-1 @ 12.21% 2-2 @ 2.84% ( 0)Other @ 0.31% Total : 28.47% | 0-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.26% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 0.99% ( -0)Other @ 1.95% Total : 19.56% |
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