SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 56.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Varnamo had a probability of 20.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.89%) and 0-2 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Varnamo win it was 1-0 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Varnamo | Draw | Malmo |
20.54% ( 0.17) | 22.65% ( 0.07) | 56.82% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 53.69% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.48% ( -0.06) | 45.52% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.15% ( -0.06) | 67.85% ( 0.06) |
| Varnamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.76% ( 0.14) | 36.24% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.98% ( 0.14) | 73.02% ( -0.14) |
| Malmo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.2% ( -0.1) | 15.8% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.05% ( -0.19) | 44.95% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Varnamo | Draw | Malmo |
| 1-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 2.95% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.79% Total : 20.54% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.02% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.64% | 0-1 @ 10.56% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.89% ( -0)0-2 @ 9.75% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 6.09% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 6% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.09% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.81% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.77% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.43% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.39% Total : 56.81% |
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