Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Goias had a probability of 33.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Goias win was 0-1 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
