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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 91.3%. A draw had a probability of 5.9% and a win for Auckland FC had a probability of 2.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 4-0 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (8.9%) and 5-0 (7.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.41%), while for an Auckland FC win it was 1-2 (0.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Auckland FC |
91.3% ( -1.85) | 5.86% ( 1.14) | 2.83% ( 0.7) |
| Both teams to score 52.34% ( 1.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 86.31% ( -2.12) | 13.69% ( 2.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 71.48% ( -3.51) | 28.52% ( 3.51) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 98.34% ( -0.41) | 1.66% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 91.55% ( -1.73) | 8.45% ( 1.73) |
| Auckland FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.22% ( 1.61) | 46.77% ( -1.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.68% ( 1.19) | 82.32% ( -1.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Auckland FC |
| 4-0 @ 9.13% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 8.9% ( 0.42)5-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.66)4-1 @ 6.94% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.61)2-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.71)5-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.23)6-0 @ 5.12% ( -0.83)2-1 @ 4.95% ( 0.74)6-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.43)1-0 @ 3.18% ( 0.53)7-0 @ 3% ( -0.73)4-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.34)7-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.43)5-2 @ 2.16% ( 0.02)8-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.51)6-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.09)8-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.31)Other @ 5.94% Total : 91.3% | 1-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.49) 2-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.35)Other @ 1.57% Total : 5.86% | 1-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.22) Other @ 1.92% Total : 2.83% |
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