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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 32.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.39%) and 2-0 (5.81%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
44.7% ( 0.15) | 22.6% ( -0.02) | 32.7% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 65.63% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.01% ( 0.04) | 34.98% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.03% ( 0.04) | 56.97% ( -0.04) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.76% ( 0.07) | 16.24% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.25% ( 0.13) | 45.75% ( -0.13) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.35% ( -0.05) | 21.65% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.22% ( -0.09) | 54.77% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.39% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.39% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.12% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.45% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.6% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 3.71% Total : 44.7% | 1-1 @ 9.78% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.8% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.51% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 2.1% Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.6% | 1-2 @ 7.48% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.82% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.55% Total : 32.7% |
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