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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Western United had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.33%) and 2-0 (5.93%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Western United |
41.17% ( 1.98) | 23.81% ( 0.23) | 35.02% ( -2.22) |
| Both teams to score 61.85% ( -1.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.76% ( -1.44) | 40.24% ( 1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.39% ( -1.5) | 62.61% ( 1.5) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.17% ( 0.29) | 19.83% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.09% ( 0.47) | 51.91% ( -0.48) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.15% ( -1.8) | 22.85% ( 1.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.42% ( -2.72) | 56.58% ( 2.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 8.76% ( 0.27) 1-0 @ 7.33% ( 0.54)2-0 @ 5.93% ( 0.48)3-1 @ 4.72% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.29)4-1 @ 1.91% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.13)Other @ 3.13% Total : 41.17% | 1-1 @ 10.82% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.15)0-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.29)3-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.81% | 1-2 @ 7.99% ( -0.26) 0-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 4.94% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 3.93% ( -0.35)2-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.25)0-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.24)1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.22)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.16)Other @ 3.24% Total : 35.02% |
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